CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-04-20T00:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16759/-1
CME Note: A CME was detected in the east of SOHO C2 coronagraph starting at 2021-04-20T00:12Z. The CME is also visible in SOHO C3 and STEREO A COR2A. The source of the CME was an eruption from AR2816 (S24E23) around 2021-04-19T23:20Z. The eruption was associated with an M1.1 flare starting at 2021-04-19T23:19Z and peaked at 2021-04-19T23:42Z. The CME arrival was predicted to be a glancing blow and a weak signature at L1 by DSCOVR is seen around 04-22T08:50Z. At this time, a magnetic field rotation is visible while the temperature remains low.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-22T08:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-23T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 5.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Wednesday, April 21, 2021 2:38 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-04-23T12:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 4 probability_of_arrival: 5Lead Time: 26.20 hour(s)
Difference: -27.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-04-21T06:38Z
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